War in Ukraine: Day 35
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Russian withdrawal misleading; Zelenskyy speaks to Biden; Russia continues bombardment

Zelenskyy is doubtful of Russian withdrawal
On 30 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he did not believe Russia’s pledge to cut back its military activities in Northern Ukraine. He said: “Ukrainians are not naive people. Ukrainians have already learned during these 34 days of invasion and over the past eight years of the war in Donbas that only a concrete result can be trusted. The facts – if they change on our land.” He further urged the people not to lose vigilance and trust Russians even though the peace talks appeared optimistic. Zelenskyy mentioned the war on the ground and said: “The enemy is still in our territory. The shelling of our cities continues. Mariupol is blocked. Missiles and airstrikes do not stop. This is the reality. These are the facts.

On the same day, Ukraine’s General armed forces staff urged the people not to believe the Russian statements of withdrawal. The General staff of the armed forces mentioned: “…the so-called ‘withdrawal of troops’ is probably a rotation of individual units and aims to mislead the military leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and create a misconception about the occupiers’ refusal to plan to encircle the city of Kyiv.” The US and the allies also urged the West not to drop their guard against Russia. 

Zelenskyy speaks to Biden
On 30 March, Zelenskyy spoke with US President Joe Biden and discussed the situation in Ukraine. Zelenskyy put forward specific defense support Ukraine needed and also asked Biden to enhance sanctions against Russia. Zelenskyy further spoke about financial and humanitarian aid as the US said it would provide USD 500 million in “direct budgetary aid.” 

Russia continues bombardment
On 30 March, the continued shelling by Moscow killed one person in the Russian-held areas of Donetsk. Authorities in Luhansk mentioned 35 attacks on local towns in the last 24 hours. The shellings hit a few flats including a kindergarten. This comes as Russia said it would be focusing on the eastern Ukraine region and would downgrade its military activities in regions apart from Donbas.   

Ukraine’s Deputy PM on special UN mission
On 30 March, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk spoke about the danger of ammunition exploding near the Chernobyl nuclear power station. She said: “We demand that the UN security council immediately take measures to demilitarise the Chernobyl exclusion zone and introduce a special UN mission there to eliminate the risk of repeating a nuclear catastrophe.” She further urged Russia to allow 97 humanitarian corridors to be established in the worst-hit towns in Ukraine. 

Attacks on Chernihiv
On 30 March, Chernihiv’s Governor Viacheslav Chaus informed the BBC of the continued attacks on the city despite promises of reducing military activities. Viacheslav Chaus said: “Right now, as we speak, I can hear which I think are mortar shells…We don’t believe [the Russians] because we’ve already seen that there isn’t a single time when their military forces keep their word.”  

Devastation in Mariupol
On 30 March, satellite photos released by an observation company called Maxar showed the irreversible damage caused by shelling in the port city of Mariupol. The city’s mayor said about 5000 people, including children, have been killed in the city since Russia’s invasion began. Earlier, Putin had also told France’s President Emmanuel Macron that the shelling would not stop until Ukrainian forces lay down their arms.  

On the same day, Mariupol saw a planned evacuation failing as complications arose between the two sides. The UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet is also investigating forcible evacuations by Russian forces in the areas it controlled. 

The Moscow view: 
Claims by Russia
Russia and Iran discuss sanctions
On 30 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke to Iran about the sanctions imposed by the West. Russia can continue dealing with countries with sanctions imposed, Lavrov spoke to Iran to discuss steps to circumvent sanctions.  

Shelling on Russian military camp
On 30 March, a temporary Russian military camp near the border with Ukraine was hit by shelling suspected to be perpetuated by the Ukrainians. Videos of the shelling were posted online, but many new agencies could not confirm it. TASS said that four people were injured in the blasts. 

Gas payments in rubles
On 30 March, the Kremlin announced that it would eventually ask its natural gas buyers to pay in rubles. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “Payments and deliveries are a time-consuming process.” However, Peskov said that a due process would be followed as the Central Bank and energy giant Gazprom are expected to present the system to receive payments in the ruble to Putin first. 

Russian goods to be exported for rubles
On 30 March, Speaker of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, said Russia planned to expand the list of goods to be exchanged for rubles. The list would include items like grain, crude oil, and lumber goods that would have to be paid for in roubles. He said: “European countries have all the market opportunities to pay in rubles. There is no tragedy in it. The situation is much more terrible when there is money but no goods.” He also said this would benefit Russia and suggested expanding the list further.  

Russia’s perspective on the talks in Istanbul 
On 30 March, Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky said at talks in Istanbul, they heard the formulated stance of Ukraine. Russia’s International Affairs Council (RIAC) Director General Andrey Kortunov said: “Russia is ready to work with Ukraine’s leadership and does not seek regime change.” However, he said no agreement was reached upon the territorial issues and that Russia would continue its military operations, at least in the Donbas region. Medinsky added that the Ukrainian forces would either be encircled or pushed back. Medinsky further said: “I want to emphasise separately that our country’s position on principle regarding Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged.”  

Lavrov’s visit to China
On 30 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tunxi, China. The two leaders discussed the war in Ukraine and ensured that the agreements between the two countries were consistently implemented.  

Sanctions on Russia leading to a global crisis
On 30 March, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, mentioned how the sanctions against Russia led to a possible global economic crisis. He said: “The actual causes threatening the global food market with serious turbulence are not in Russia’s actions but rather is the unrestrained sanction hysteria the West has unleashed against Russia giving no thought either to the population of the countries of the so-called global south or to their own citizens.” However, he reiterated that Russia was committed to its international liabilities and extended a security guarantee to Ukrainian troops who wanted to surrender.  

Claims of recruiting 16,000 Middle East fighters 
On 30 March, in a follow-up report on Russia calling Syrian soldiers to join the war in Ukraine, the BBC mentioned how Moscow now claims that it had recruited 16,000 fighters from the Middle East. A recruiter said: “The recruitment to Ukraine is exactly like how we recruited to Libya; there are representatives in the regions….You have the right to change your decision after you apply. No one will force you to go.” Syria has been facing a crisis induced by instability and war, and thus, fighters are inclined to accept Russia’s offer to fight in Ukraine.  

Corporates face difficulties continuing in Russia
On 30 March, due to the Western sanctions imposed on Russia, about 250 foreign companies left Russia in response to the war. This has led to a corporate rejection of Russia in fear of not only retaliatory sanctions or business risks but mainly due to ethical reasons. McDonald’s’ CEO Chris Kempczinski said: “our values mean we cannot ignore the needless human suffering unfolding in Ukraine.”  

The West view:
Responses the UK and the EU
Germany and Austria
Germany and Austria have proposed an emergency plan to alternate for the cut-off on Russian gas supply. The move comes as Russia places a strict demand for unfriendly countries to payback in roubles for the exported energy supply. Germany has strategized by asking its consumers and businesses to reduce their consumption to work ahead for the upcoming shortage and Austria has confirmed to tighten its monitoring of the energy market. Along with both, UK also denied paying in roubles to Russian commodities stating the impact on industries and manufactures.

The UK
On 30 March, the UK government announced new set of sanctions on aircrafts and ships of Russian Oligarchs or their businesses. The new move will add strength to the existing sanctions amongst businesses. Especially, plane manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus have stopped supplying components to Russia upon sanctions from the West. It has also issues 25,500 visas to Ukrainian refugees under the new scheme, so far the applications count stand to 59,500.

On 30 March, the UK Ministry of Defense reported Russian troops were hit with huge losses and due to which have been pushed to return to Russia and Belarus to recoup efforts. According to the ministry: “Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having re-organising its units in forward areas within Ukraine.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
The UN
On 30 March, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported that more than four million people had left Ukraine due to the war and close to 6.5 million people had been displaced across Ukraine. According to the research taken by International Organisation of Migration (IOM) found the reasons behind the internal displacement. It found that mostly displaced were women, who were pregnant or disabled or was a victim of war. Amongst the European countries in the ascending order, Poland, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Russia, Slovakia, and Belarus found to be the common destinations of the refugees.

China
On 30 March, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a meeting said that China and Russia is “more determined,” to boost their cooperation in terms of bilateral ties. He said: “China is willing to work with Russia to take China-Russian ties to a higher level in a new era under the guidance of the consensus reached by the heads of state.” On the question of peace talks, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that China has “its own way” to pursue its peace talks and confirmed that it will go by international law and norms.

Middle-East
Recent reports state that Russia had signed close to 16,000 soldiers from Middle-East, mostly from Syria to fight against Ukraine. They have been offered USD 7000 in return for the troop deployment by Russia and the requests to join has been continuous due to current economic crisis in Syria.

References:

“Russia says Ukraine willing to meet core demands, but work continues,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
“Russia, Iran to take practical steps to circumvent Western sanctions -RIA cites Lavrov,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
“Shell hits military camp in Russia, most likely from Ukrainian side - Tass,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
“Russia Will Gradually Transfer Gas Payments to Rubles: Kremlin,” The Moscow Times, 30 March 2022 
“State Duma speaker suggests expanding list of Russian goods exported for rubles,” TASS, 30 March 2022 
“Press review: Takeaways from Istanbul talks and US pressures Arab world on Russia,” TASS, 30 March 2022 
“Russia interested in solid, consistent development of relations with China, says Lavrov,” TASS, 30 March 2022 
“West’s unilateral anti-Russian sanctions leading to crisis of historic scale — diplomat,” TASS, 30 March 2022 
Nigel Gould-Davies, “Corporate Rejection of Russia Marks New Era of Political Risk,” The Moscow Times, 30 March 2022
“Russia claims to have recruited 16,000 Middle East fighters,” BBC, 30 March 2022
Paul Kirby, “Russian bombardment intensifies in east,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
Hugo Bachega, “‘This night was rough' - attacks continue in Chernihiv,” BBC, 30 March 2022
“Satellite photos show scale of devastation in Mariupol,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
“What was the reaction to Russia's pull back pledge?,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
“Pull back pledge designed to mislead - Ukraine's military,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
“Ukraine's deputy PM: special UN mission needed to eliminate risk of nuclear accident at Chernobyl,” The Guardian, 30 March 2022
“‘Ukrainians are not naive’: Zelenskiy voices doubt on Russian withdrawal,” The Guardian, 30 March 2022
“Russian troop withdrawal designed to ‘mislead’, Ukrainian military says,” The Guardian, 30 March 2022
“How many Ukrainians have fled their homes and where have they gone?,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
“Ukraine war: The Syrians signing up to fight for Russia,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
“Germany and Austria take step towards gas rationing,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
“UK introduces new sanctions powers targetting Russian oligarchs' aircraft and ships,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
“UK issues 25,500 visas to Ukrainian refugees as millions flee from war,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
“Britain won't pay in roubles for Russian gas, PM spokesman says,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
“China, Russia 'more determined' to boost ties, Beijing says,” Reuters, 30 March 2022

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

REGIONAL
Vatican trial defendant Carlino testifies on a botched deal 
On 30 March, Monsignor Mauro Carlino testified on the botched London real estate deal involving Pope Francis. The defendant testified that Pope Francis approved a EUR 15 million settlement to withdraw from the botched deal. In 2014 the Vatican's Secretariat of State, Cardinal Pietro Parra invested EUR 350 million on a luxury building in London with Italian broker Raffaele Mincione. The Vatican suspected it was being scammed by Mincione in 2018 and resorted to another broker, Gianluigi Torzi, to get out of the initial contract. Carlino said that he and other Vatican negotiators agreed to pay Torzi EUR 15 million in May 2019 to exit the deal. Prosecutors said the Vatican lost EUR 217 million; some of it was donations by the faithful. The trial is adjourned until 5 April. (Philip Pullella, “Pope approved payment for Vatican to exit botched deal, court told,” Reuters, 31 March 2022)

EU to present plans for circular economy
On 30 March, the European Commission said, it would present its proposals for the EU's transition to a circular economy. This comes as an effort to move toward long-term sustainability. The circular economy project offers tools to individuals that encourage reusing and repairing rather than buying new instruments. The aim is to provide individuals with high-quality tools so they don't have to buy cheap, low-quality items that they may never use again. Policy Officer of European Environmental Bureau Jean-Pierre Schweitzer stated: "if you can access spare parts locally rather than having to import them from the other side of the globe, this means that at a local scale where you have more control of your supply chain, you can be more resilient." (Aida Sanchez Alonso, “Brussels to present circular economy plans in bid to reduce waste,” Euronews, 29 March 2022)

SPORTS
Barcelona beat Real Madrid by 5-2
On 30 March, a record 91,533 spectators witnessed Barcelona beat Real Madrid in the Women's Champions League at Camp Nou football stadium. It was the largest audience that a women's game has ever gathered for in a stadium in Spain. This game outnumbered the previous record of nearly 30,000 seats when Barcelona played Atletico Madrid in 2019. Barcelona beat its rival Real Madrid 5-2 and reached the semi-finals with an aggregate 8-3 win. (Sid Lowe, “Record crowd sees Barcelona Women beat Real Madrid in Champions League,” The Guardian, 31 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The UK and Russia’s Foreign Ministers visit India
On 31 March, the UK’s Foreign Minister Liz Truss mentioned that she would visit India on 31 March as a part of her broader diplomatic effort on the war in Ukraine. Her trip will coincide with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who is also visiting India for two days. The UK foreign ministry said she would emphasize the role of democracies working together to deter aggressors. Furthermore, Truss will also unveil a new joint cyber security initiative and increase maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Her plan to visit comes after India refused to condemn Russia and join the West in issuing sanctions. (“UK's Truss to visit India on same day as Russia's Lavrov,” Reuters, 31 March 2022)